Teuchter Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I read the other day that the U.S. think tank the RAND corporation produced several forecasts for Brexit using different scenarios.Soft or hard, it made grim reading for the UK.I am not sure of their more recent forecasting efforts, but in 1965 it was the RAND corporation, using what was the latest computer technology, tried to forecast the outcome of the then fledgling Vietnam war.The conclusion? The U.S. had already won three months previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinnie Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Until the full set of negotiations are complete, its nigh on impossible to predict anything. We do a lot of forecasting for work, and around three quarters of the time, the forecasts are wrong - both favourably and unfavourably. I never read too much into polls and forecasts as I daresay that if the used the same parameters next week, the outlook could be completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teuchter Posted December 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 I read the story about RAND in Denis Healey's autobiography.As an ex Chancellor of the Exchequer he also had a low opinion about the reliability of economic forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabino Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 @TeuchterNothing to with Financial wild guessing, but a special thanks for making it clear and to not open your thread about Jeanette Krankie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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