Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic

[GG Riva]

I don't have Facebook but Mrs Riva does and she was sent a blog (in Italian) by her cousin, from Dr Guido Silvestri, who works at Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta Georgia.

He outlines several rational reasons why we can look forward with cautious optimism to overcoming the coronavirus and doesn't miss those who have been peddling fake news on social media - some in good faith, others who get some perverse kick out of frightening those who are already anxious about themselves or members of their own family.

Perhaps someone who has Facebook can find the blog and post it or a link on this thread. I'm 100% convinced it's genuine.

It starts with ''I've just worked a 14 hour shift and I'm very tired...."

Thanks.

[Guest The Beer Baron]

What on earth are you gibbering on about?

[Vinnie]

I have absolutely no clue what hes on about? 

[Al k]

It has the original link but in Italian. Can't find the whole post anywhere.  

(ILFLASH # 453)
http://www.servirelitalia.it/flash/flash453.pdf
I receive from my friend Prof. Giorgio Lambertenghi, a valuable physician and scientist, an informative message from Prof. Guido Silvestri, which seems particularly clear to me.
I am pleased to share it by thanking both Prof. Lambertenghi and Prof. Silvestri.
THE OPTIMISM THAT COMES FROM KNOWLEDGE
by Guido Silvestri (*)

I write this post at the end of a 14-hour day between hospital and laboratory (and tomorrow will be even worse). I am very tired, I have a headache, but I do it willingly because I firmly believe that giving GOOD INFORMATION is very useful in a difficult moment like this.

1) ORIGIN OF THE VIRUS.
A systematic study of the genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 (Andersen KG et al. Nature Medicine 2020) was released two days ago which demonstrates without a shadow of a doubt that the virus has a natural and zoonotic origin (from animals, and in particular bats and pangolins). So the history of the virus "created" in the laboratory is confirmed as a colossal hoax.

2) COVID-19 IN CHILDREN.
The comprehensive study of the COVID-19 infection in Chinese children shows that over 2145 total cases over 90% were asymptomatic, mild or moderate, with only one death reported, due to lethality of the infection - defined as the number of deaths divided by the total of cases - which is <0.05% for those under 18 years of age (Dong Y et al. Pediatrics 2020).

3) LETALITY OF COVID-19.
While deaths increase dramatically both in Italy and in other countries, it is important to remember that on the basis of the overall data available, lethality is estimated to be less than 2%, which means that 98% of infected people recover (Fauci AS, personal communication ). The high number of deaths we observe these days is therefore related to the high number of infected people, often with mild symptoms or even without symptoms. I also remember that all available data confirm that the vast majority of deaths are over 60 years old and have important co-morbidities (diabetes, hypertension, COPD, ischemic heart disease).

4) VIRUS ON SURFACES.
A recent study indicates that SARS-CoV-2 lives up to three days on certain surfaces such as plastic and steel, and only for a few hours on surfaces such as cardboard and copper. The virus appears to survive for a short time, a few hours at most, as an aerosol (Van Doremalen et al., N Engl J Med 2020). We avoid "the virus survives in the asphalt for months", which are based on nothing.

5) NATURAL IMMUNITY.
Data on natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 that is acquired by infected and healed people are not currently such as to allow peremptory claims, but as far as we know about other coronaviruses, at least a temporary natural immunity should develop for a period of at least 6 -12 months (Ralph Baric, interview on "The Week in Virology podcast" - remember that Baric is to coronaviruses as Maradona is to football).

6) THERAPIES.
At the moment, the most important thing in severe or critical cases of COVID-19 - which are a minority - is respiratory support, while there are no "magic drugs" that heal the disease, neither in Russia nor elsewhere. However, reasonable hopes come from antivirals such as Remdesivir, and immunomodulators such as Tocilizumab, Baraticinib, and others. I remember that the latter are therapies to be reserved for severe or critical cases, while mild and moderate ones heal on their own or with symptomatic therapy.

7) VACCINE.
Work is being done busily especially here in the USA on various vaccination platforms, in particular RNA vaccines and recombinant spike (S) protein vaccines. These vaccines could be ready for initial clinical studies (safety + immunogenicity) by next autumn, although for actual clinical efficacy studies it will probably take 12-18 months.

😎 TEMPERATURE EFFECT.
There are still indications - not evidence, but certainly evidence - that the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may at least partially mitigate with the arrival of spring. In this sense, it will be important to fol

[GG Riva]

Thank you Al k, I'm going to attempt to translate the rest of Dr Silvestri's post, as I can't find an easier way to do it. I feel it's important to share any positive news, as there are a lot of scared and worried people out there - and with good reason.

I hope it doesn't add to BB and Vinnie's confusion.😀

😎TEMPERATURE EFFECT.
There are still indications - not evidence, but certainly clues/hints - that the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may at least partially mitigate with the arrival of spring. In this sense, it will be important to follow the progress of the virus in Africa, Latin America and S.E. Asia, particularly Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, India and Bangladesh (and perhaps Southern Italy.)

9) EFFECT OF CHARLATANS

Will you all please stop listening to them for once? I'm referring to charlatans acting in bad faith - they are jackals, scoundrels and beggars - and those, ahem, acting in good faith, gullible, frightened people, who spread false information because they simply don't know what they're talking about. Disinformation has never served any purpose, far less in this situation.

10) OPTIMISM ALWAYS, HOWEVER

I remain firmly optimistic, in spite of everything and convinced that in a few months, we'll go back to life as before - rather, we'll live better than before, if from this great fear we have learned the right lessons, as scientists, citizens and humanity in general. Because this is the true, great challenge which we must all win together - to honour the victims of this disease  in the best possible way.

With this I bid you all good day, thank you as always for following me and goodbye until I have another moment I can breathe!

Eta, This man is one of many, many heroes working tirelessly to try and save many lives around the globe and they all deserve our humble gratitude and applause.
 

[Vinnie]

This fella talks of posting and sharing bad information as wrong, then posts to Facebook?  😲

An interesting read nontheless

[GG Riva]

3 hours ago, Vinnie said:

This fella talks of posting and sharing bad information as wrong, then posts to Facebook?  😲

An interesting read nontheless

Maybe because Facebook reaches a helluva lot of people, Vinnie? It's a pity much of the stuff on there is cr@p, which is why I haven't joined. Trying to wade through all that to find the odd bit of useful information is too much like hard work.....

Pleased you enjoyed it. Will be good to hear what BB thinks when he rises from his scratcher..... 

[Vinnie]

48 minutes ago, GG Riva said:

It's a pity much of the stuff on there is cr@p, which is why I haven't joined. Trying to wade through all that to find the odd bit of useful information is too much like hard work.....

I said interesting rather than enjoyable, and whilst I think there may be some fact there, is this useful information?  For example......

Its originally in Italian, but under note seven about Vaccines, he says here in the US? 

Now I know that the US has a large Italian community and that he could have family in Italy that he writes to in Italian, but it would seem like the sort of inconsistency that tends to appear in fake news posts?  

 

[Teuchter]

If Facebook is full of bad information - which we know it is, there are two reactions. Either ignore it or counter it. The guy is countering what he sees is bad information on Facebook. I don’t see what is contradictory about that.

I am not sure what was so difficult to understand about @GG Riva ‘s original post. I could see straight away but couldn’t be bothered doing the search that @Al k did.

The guy seems to be an Italian academic at a U.S.University.

 

Edit - as in Italian who studied originally in Italy.

Biography

Dr. Guido Silvestri received his MD in Ancona, Italy, and completed Residency training in Internal Medicine & Clinical Immunology (Florence 1990) and Pathology (U. Penn 2001). He is currently a Georgia Research Alliance Eminent Scholar in Comparative Pathology, and Professor and Vice-Chair of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the Emory University School of Medicine, where is also serves as Chair of the Division of Microbiology & Immunology at the Yerkes National Primate Research Center. 

 

[average white par]

I'm not quite sure where you're going with that last post either, Vincent..

I'm Scottish but I live in Spain. However, when I write to my relatives, no matter where they are, I wouldn't write to them in Spanish would I?

Am I just being doavey here?

[GG Riva]

Thanks for clarifying that for Vinnie, Teuchter. I should have made it clearer myself that Dr Silvestri is Italian but works in the USA. I'm sure his English will be good but his Italian will be better. ☺

I'm not fussed about Facebook, but it would be foolish in the extreme to dismiss everything which appears on it. If you read the blog, it's not difficult to see that it is a genuine attempt to counter some of the nonsense being peddled there.

[Vinnie]

22 minutes ago, average white par said:

I'm not quite sure where you're going with that last post either, Vincent..

I'm Scottish but I live in Spain. However, when I write to my relatives, no matter where they are, I wouldn't write to them in Spanish would I?

Am I just being doavey here?

Not at all... and to be fair, at the time I read though all the Facebook post thing, Id forgotten that GG mentioned this fella was based in the States.

The point was that people post articles from blogs on Facebook, which tend to be one sided and misleading, and therefore unreliable.  Usually there is a something in them that suggests their sources are dubious - something that is minorly inconsistent makes you doubt what youre reading

[average white par]

Fair enough neebs. I must confess that I also have a deep distrust of this type of thing, which probably explains my total disinterest and lack of participation on any form of social media.

It could also be because I have a crappy cheap phone, but that's another dilemma altogether...

[Teuchter]

2 hours ago, Vinnie said:

The point was that people post articles from blogs on Facebook, which tend to be one sided and misleading, and therefore unreliable.  Usually there is a something in them that suggests their sources are dubious - something that is minorly inconsistent makes you doubt what youre reading

Agree with that. The inconsistency you highlighted made me curious enough to check it out more - seem to have a bit more time on my hands just now. 

[Vinnie]

Ok... good... was starting to think being cooped up was sending me a little do-lally 😳😳