Grant Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, DA-go Par Adonis said: How does their methodology differ from someone like Opta? Genuine question - I don't know one way or the other. It was just the only one I could find - ideally to try and see if Inverness' XG was lower in the 2nd half than the 1st last night, whilst compartmentalising the penalty separately... xG should purely be a representation of how likely a player was to score with the chance that they had, it does it by looking at the history of shots from the same distance/angle/type of shot (Header, volley etc), the easiest way to represent that is a penalty which has an xG of 0.76, because 76 out of every 100 penalties are scored apparently. However what footystats do according to there website - "FootyStats uses a unique formula for calculating xG. Traditional xG only takes account of shot positions while FootyStats uses a combination of shot accuracy (on/off target), shot frequency (number of shots), attack dangerousness, overall attack pressure (posession amount and depth of posession) to summarize expected goals for Championship." All those extra metrics they're adding in doesn't make the xG metric more accurate, it does the opposite, why would possession change the liklihood of a chance going in etc? What I think is actually happening with footystats is that they have an equation which calculates shots on and off target, possession and attack pressure, all of which are stats you get on a betting website and they're putting a figure next to it. I don't think it's truly "xG" at all in that they're not taking into account how hard, or how easy the chance was. It's not the same xG stat that you'd see on Motd etc. From looking around footystats I think it's primary function is to help out with betting. From yesterday for example Jak would've had a higher xG for his chance than the penalty, however outwith that it would've been dreadfully low scores all around because headers typically have a lower xG. I know wyscout used to have fairly good xG data on the Scottish championship but it's awfully expensive if you fancy it. I'm a big fan of xG as a stat, and as you've said it would've been interesting seing the difference from the first half to the second. It's a shame such things aren't readily available. Edited February 28 by Grant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA-go Par Adonis Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 I'm reading Rory Smith's book on the subject at the moment. It's quite interesting - although I'm sure you'll have read it already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Riva Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 5 hours ago, Superally said: I think Ross Millen would be a decent shout, but he was terribly targeted and unnecessarily so by the boo-boys in our crowd when he was here as a youngster. However has done well for himself since he has left but there is no chance he would return. I'm sure he will have other options. Story I got was that he's off to Hamilton. He's been released by the Rovers but it appears to be mutual - he no longer wants to play for them and they don't want him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottyboy Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 26 minutes ago, GG Riva said: Story I got was that he's off to Hamilton. He's been released by the Rovers but it appears to be mutual - he no longer wants to play for them and they don't want him. That's a fair jump down to put himself in the shop window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grant Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 43 minutes ago, DA-go Par Adonis said: I'm reading Rory Smith's book on the subject at the moment. It's quite interesting - although I'm sure you'll have read it already. I haven't tbf, you recommend it? Most of my knowledge comes from looking around, and from following Brentford when I lived down south and they were in the Championship, read allot and listened to a good few interviews and podcast with the ownership group who were mad for analytics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA-go Par Adonis Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 (edited) Aye, it tracks the start of data collection in football and explores how it has evolved over time. Sounds quite dry but there are some interesting individuals and stories across the time period, plus various examples of clubs who have adopted a data based approach and how it has worked for them. Edited February 29 by DA-go Par Adonis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lambo1885 Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 3 hours ago, DA-go Par Adonis said: I'm reading Rory Smith's book on the subject at the moment. It's quite interesting - although I'm sure you'll have read it already. I'm reading it at the moment too. I'd recommend it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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