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Lady Luck


GG Riva

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There have been plenty of posters, pundits, and commentators suggesting that the Pars win at Firhill was all down to luck.

I`m not minded to agree or disagree with that, but is it not the case that in games between fairly evenly matched teams, a bit of good or bad luck can often make the difference to the final result? How often do we see a team go very close at one end, maybe hitting the post or bar and their opponents go straight up the park and score? Now, I would argue that there`s not a huge difference among the teams in a 10 team league, so any one can beat anyone else with a bit of luck and that works both ways, of course. 

So yes, Thistle didn`t have much luck, but their fans should dry their eyes and get on with it like the Pars have done, despite the never ending run of injuries we`ve had to so many key players this season. The bottom line is they lost to a team made up mainly of kids on loan and fringe players who would have been unlikely to start if everyone was fit. 🙂
 

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Totally agree with you, GG. At the start of this season I think it was recognised that this was going to be a challenging one for DAFC due in general to the quality of the opposition. While some were optimistically (IMHO) predicting a play-off place the more level-headed types recognised that consolidation was the name of the game, at least for the first season. And of course that was before our run of catastrophic injuries. Luck? Well we certainly haven’t had much of it. And maybe the way the game at Firhill panned out has taken us all by complete surprise, because it’s something we just haven’t been accustomed to. But in a way some of the bizarre refereeing decisions stirred memories of years gone by, as I recalled many occasions where we were “robbed” by a supposedly biased referee or one who had been conned by the play-acting of the opposition. Happy days!?

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The team deserved everything they got from the Partick game after a lot of decisions never went our way in previous games. The players put 100% effort in and it helped with the 3 coming back from injury. If they put in the same effort we can come away with a win at ICT. 

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It's difficult to consolidate in the Championship without challenging for the top 4.

It was perfectly realistic to expect it also. I'd take staying up now however, but that's because we've played almost the entire season without Bene, Todd and KRH.  If the 3 of them had been fit for the majority of the time, I think we'd have more points - which would mean we'd by in the play-off mix at the right end.

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22 minutes ago, DA-go Par Adonis said:

It's difficult to consolidate in the Championship without challenging for the top 4.

It was perfectly realistic to expect it also. I'd take staying up now however, but that's because we've played almost the entire season without Bene, Todd and KRH.  If the 3 of them had been fit for the majority of the time, I think we'd have more points - which would mean we'd by in the play-off mix at the right end.

Definitely. Those 3 available were scoring far more goals and conceding fewer. Ergo more points. 

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10 hours ago, DA-go Par Adonis said:

It's difficult to consolidate in the Championship without challenging for the top 4.

It was perfectly realistic to expect it also. I'd take staying up now however, but that's because we've played almost the entire season without Bene, Todd and KRH.  If the 3 of them had been fit for the majority of the time, I think we'd have more points - which would mean we'd by in the play-off mix at the right end.

Not to mention, we were in the play off spots comfortably before the injury crisis hit.

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11 hours ago, Yorkiepar said:

Totally agree with you, GG. At the start of this season I think it was recognised that this was going to be a challenging one for DAFC due in general to the quality of the opposition. While some were optimistically (IMHO) predicting a play-off place the more level-headed types recognised that consolidation was the name of the game, 

Go on, explain to me how in this division we would be safely consolidating without challenging for the playoffs? The only sides not currently worried about relegation are the top four, Ayr are in fifth and only three points of relegation. 

To me, trying to make out you're level headed for not expecting to challenge for the playoffs just makes you look a bit silly tbh. 

Edited by Grant
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I think the real frustration comes from the fact that we are not that far away from/better than most teams in the league. A series of horrendous injuries has hamstrung us (coupled with bizarre formations given the players available). I think McPake (or his gaffers') insistence with playing 3 at the back has cost us a pile of points thus far, hopefully the realisation that 4-4-2, 4-5-1  (or similar) works fine with our squad will continue into Tuesday and the weekend. COYP

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Interestingly 3 of Morton’s next 4 games are against United, Raith and Patrick as well as a cup game with Hearts. If they are still well clear in 4th in a month then fair play but there is an opportunity for a number of teams to catch them in the next month or so. The Pars have as much chance as anybody.

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1 hour ago, Grant said:

Go on, explain to me how in this division we would be safely consolidating without challenging for the playoffs? The only sides not currently worried about relegation are the top four, Ayr are in fifth and only three points of relegation. 

To me, trying to make out you're level headed for not expecting to challenge for the playoffs just makes you look a bit silly tbh. 

We did well to bounce back from League 1 after the clusterf***k of the previous season. I do think however that the winning margin flattered us slightly because some of our play last season was, at best, mediocre. What really gave us momentum was the feelgood factor that was instilled in the team. McPake was in the process of building a squad - and indeed still is. That’s why I say that, at the start of this season (note, not at the present moment) I saw consolidation as a sensible target. Nobody could have anticipated that, two-thirds of the way through, there would be two teams stretching away and five teams within three points battling each other to avoid a relegation playoff place. Hindsight’s a wonderful thing. And, no, with respect I don’t think I look “silly”.

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1 hour ago, Boston Red Sox said:

I think the real frustration comes from the fact that we are not that far away from/better than most teams in the league. A series of horrendous injuries has hamstrung us (coupled with bizarre formations given the players available). I think McPake (or his gaffers') insistence with playing 3 at the back has cost us a pile of points thus far, hopefully the realisation that 4-4-2, 4-5-1  (or similar) works fine with our squad will continue into Tuesday and the weekend. COYP

I think you can be critical of the line-up against Morton - Etoo, MFW and Benjamin (who had been in the door for 24 hours) was madness.

However, I think with Bene and Breen out, McPake was quite right in playing 3 centre backs.  He was trying to make the team as solid as possible when the likes of Hamiliton, Comrie and even Edwards were being asked to fill in there. 

He could have gone with 2 centre backs (some combo of Otoo, Hamilton and Fisher when available), seen us take a doing and then he would, rightly, have been questioned as to why he set the team up that way. 

Hughes had an injury/suspension crisis (can't remember which, can't be bothered checking) at Cappielow in January 2022.  He decided to play Donaldson on his debut and Lewis Martin, who hadn't played in nearly a year, as the centre back pairing.  It didn't end well.

I think it is fair to say that it is the lack of personnel rather than the formation which has cost us.

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1 hour ago, Yorkiepar said:

We did well to bounce back from League 1 after the clusterf***k of the previous season. I do think however that the winning margin flattered us slightly because some of our play last season was, at best, mediocre. What really gave us momentum was the feelgood factor that was instilled in the team. McPake was in the process of building a squad - and indeed still is. That’s why I say that, at the start of this season (note, not at the present moment) I saw consolidation as a sensible target. Nobody could have anticipated that, two-thirds of the way through, there would be two teams stretching away and five teams within three points battling each other to avoid a relegation playoff place. Hindsight’s a wonderful thing. And, no, with respect I don’t think I look “silly”.

Nobody could have anticipated that in a ten team division, where 4th is the playoffs, and 9th is the relegation playoffs that there wouldn't be a middle ground? It's nothing to do with hindsight, if you're 6th you're only a couple of positions from promotion playoffs, if you're 7th you're a couple of places away from relegation. 

Where would be the position where wouldn't be worrying about relegation but also not challenging for promotion? 

Look at history, since the promotion playoffs have been introduced, every year the previous years League One winners have finished at least 5th, barring one season. (Last season where Cove Finished tenth, however QP finished 3rd...). There's absolutely no scope for consolidation, if you're not worried about relegation you're challenging for the playoffs. 

If we finish lower than 6th or lower we'll be the 2nd worst promoted side since the playoffs were introduced, to make out your level headed for anticipating that is silly. 

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